1998 1999 2001f 2000f GDP (US$trillion) 0.96 0.98 1.16 1.08 GDP per capita (US$) 770 785 906.2 855 Population (b) 1.24 1.25 1.28 1.27 Nominal GDP by sector(% of GDP): Primary sector 18 17.3 Secondary sector 49.2 49.7 of which: Industry 42.2 43.1 Construction 7.1 6.6 Tertiary sector 32.8 32.9 of which: Commerce 8.3 — Transport, telecommunications 6.3 —

Demographic 1995; (% of total)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001f 2002f Real GDP (% real change) 8.8 7.8 7.1 8 7.5 7 GDP per capita (US$) 727 770 785 855 906.2 959 Value added industrial output (% real change) 11.1 8.8 8.9 11 9.5 9 Fixed asset investment (% nominal change) 10.8 19.5 7.8 11.5 9.5 9 Retail sales (% nominal change) 10.2 6.8 6.8 9.5 9 9 Exports (% change in US$) 21 0.5 6.1 27.8 6 10 Imports (% change in US$) 2.5 -1.5 18.2 35.8 11 12 Merchandise trade balance (US$b) 40.4 43.5 29.2 24.1 14.3 10.7 Current account balance (US$b) 29.7 29.3 15.7 10.9 0.1 -5.6 Foreign reserves (US$b; yr-end) 139.9 145 153.5 163.3 167.9 172 External debt (US$b; yr-end) 131 146 151.8 154 159.4 — External debt service ratio (% of exports) * 75 76.8 74.2 — — — * Source: Institute of International Finance Inflation (consumer price % change) 2.8 -0.8 -1.4 0.5 2 2 One-year loan rate (% p.a.; yr-end) 8.28 8.28 8.3 8.28 8.5 8.65 Money supply (M2; yr-end; % change) 20.8 15.2 16.1 14 14 13 Exchange rate (yuan/US$; yr-end) 8.28 8.28 8.30 8.28 8.50 8.65

Investment and consumption

Import and Export Trade Figures

Shanghai Composite Index

Comment:
We believe there are clear signs that China's growth cycle has already peaked. Hence, we maintain our below consensus 7.5 per cent gross domestic product forecast for 2001.
Our core argument remains that sharply slowing exports may not be fully offset by the steady expansion of domestic demand, which is unlikely to accelerate further.
The growth momentum of exports has indeed been cooling as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development leading indicator continues to head south. We expect export growth to drop to 6 per cent this year, versus 27.8 per cent last year.
Ma Guonan, head of North Asia economic research
Source and comment: Merrill Lynch